Can AI simulate humans?
We spent three months finding out.

40+ conversations with vendors, brand-side insights leaders, and academics. We identified four approaches, bust market myths, ran a test ourselves and much more. Read it yourself, or bring us in.

40+

interviews across vendors, brands, and academics

16

vendor platforms, self-serve to enterprise builds

13

brand-side insights teams piloting, deployed, or building

✺

Independent + unsponsored

No money was taken from any vendor to write this report. This is an intentionally independent, unsponsored report. Vendors named in it appear as illustration, not an endorsement.

Report impact

After reading the report, you’ll be able to:

  • 01

    Understand the four approaches and where each one fits

  • 02

    Cut through inconsistent vendor terminology and claims

  • 03

    Match the right approach to the right research need

  • 04

    Ask better questions in vendor conversations

  • 05

    Know what exercise to run to validate a vendor before you rely on it

Report contents

What's in the report

Fifteen sections, written to be read in one sitting.

How it works

01About this report
02Our position. Insights needs to lead this shift.
03Why the industry is excited
04How simulating humans works, generally
05The four approaches we see in the market

The four approaches

06Approach 1, prompt-only
07Approach 2, findings-grounded
08Approach 3, respondent-grounded
09Approach 4, psychology-modeled
10Use cases, and where each approach fits

How to evaluate and buy

11Top myths, explained
12Market validation
13The Opportunity for Insights
14How to Tell What's Worth Buying
15Where we land
Services

How can we put this in practice

Focused on your unique needs, our team delivers solutions that blend deep industry knowledge and cutting-edge strategies to ensure lasting growth.

Simulated Humans Foundations

The report plus two one-hour live sessions, virtual or on site
On-site delivery at an offsite, summit, or leadership meetingAvailable
The report for everyone who attends, plus a recording for your internal libraryIncluded

Sized for a team. Larger audiences work for session one.

Who it's for

Insights teams who will run, review, or sign off on simulated studies this year. Also I&A forums, marketing summits, and leadership offsites.

What the two hours cover

Hour 1How it works and what you're buying. The four approaches, the persona vs. twin question, what grounds a model, and why you can't tell from the vendor's label.
Hour 2How to judge it. Bust top myths, accuracy vs. consistency, the decision test, and a hands-on exercise. Ends with the vendor question checklist you use to assess vendor demos.

What your team walks out with

A shared vocabulary so your team, your stakeholders, and your vendors are describing the same thing.

The vendor question checklist covering grounding data, reasoning, validation, drift, and data rights.

A prompt-only starter kit your team can run in Copilot, ChatGPT, or Claude the following week.

From Use Cases to a Pilot Plan

The report plus a half-day session, virtual or on site
Full day on site, with stakeholder sessionAvailable
The report for everyone in the roomIncluded

Who it's for

The VP of Insights with their team members and/or cross-functional stakeholders from marketing, analytics, or innovation.

What we cover

Your business decisions first. Which decisions this needs to support in the next year, and for which audiences.

Outline the design considerations for each persona group and use case, along with data requirements and gaps.

How you'll validate. What "validated" means for your team and your stakeholders before anyone runs a comparison.

After workshop deliverable

Our recommended technical approach by business need.

A short list of vendors that match the technical approach, with a build option.

A vendor test brief ready to use with vendors.

Pilot Advisory

04 · Pilot Advisory

Vendor Evaluation and Pilot Design

The report plus a six to eight week engagement

Scoped to your use cases and the number of vendors in play.

Who it's for

Insights leaders with budget approved to run pilots on two or more vendors.

What we cover

Defining the best test benchmark to pressure test the vendors.

Define validation criteria.

A pilot test design to make a clear vendor recommendation and implementation plan.

What you leave with

A scored vendor recommendation with the reasoning shown.

A pilot plan with success criteria.

A checklist needed to ensure legal and procurement are aligned.

Custom Consulting

05 · Custom Consulting

Bring Us the Problem

A marketing team has already built a persona tool and you need someone to audit it. A supplier needs to decide where it sits in this market. Two functions are fighting over who owns the vendor decision. We do custom consulting.

Custom advisory plan, fixed fee or monthly retainer

Every custom engagement starts with a free 30-minute consultation call and oftentimes requires another free 30-minute follow-up scoping call before a custom proposal is built.

Who it's for

Insights leaders with a specific situation on their hands, and research suppliers rethinking their offer for a market where their clients can simulate the study.

Work we've been asked for so far

Internal build audit. Someone in your company already built a simulation tool. We review the grounding data, the prompts, the scoring, and the UX, and tell you what it can and can't be trusted for.

Build your own solution. Want to create your own solution with the data you have but lack the technical ability? We have the team and the talent.

Supplier repositioning. Where your agency or platform fits on the market map, what your clients will be asking you next year, and what to build or partner for.

Ongoing advisory. A standing monthly slot for the leader who wants a second opinion on every vendor call, pilot readout, and board question.

Team

Your consulting dream team

Advisory work at this depth takes four skill sets, and this team has all of them. Brand-side insights experience. Market research supplier experience. Experience building AI personas. And the technical depth to build simulated humans and understand how LLMs work.

Kristi Zuhlke

Technology and brand-side insights

Started in insights at Procter & Gamble, then founded and sold the technology company KnowledgeHound. Now advises Fortune 500 insights leaders on where AI fits in their work.

Remy Thim

Market research execution

A career on the supplier side running rigorous methodologies and designing new approaches. Has vetted AI research tools hands-on, as a practitioner.

Matt Macbeth

Building models that simulate humans

Deep technical expertise in how simulation systems are built, having built his own systems that run on off-grid supercomputers.

Dr. Tom Foust

Linguistics

Expert in how language models interpret and produce human language, which decides whether a simulation holds up.

Get started

Get the report today.

An independent, unsponsored guide to simulated humans in market research. Read it on your own, or bring us in to help put it into practice.

  • The full 15-section report in PDF format
  • An explanation of how this methodology actually works
  • A map of the four approaches
  • A guide to run a validation study
  • Built on 40+ interviews, 16 vendors and 13 brand teams
Before you buy
Which vendor does the report recommend?

None. Nobody paid to be in it. The report gives you the framework and skills you need to assess the vendors you are currently looking at.

When you say "simulated humans," is that synthetic?

Many people use the word synthetic to describe what we call simulating humans. We believe the word synthetic implies fake or inferior and gives people the wrong idea of what the method does. Simulating humans is the most accurate descriptor of what's happening.

Does this report cover sample augmentation?

No. The report covers replacing a study you'd otherwise field with people. Augmenting a sample with simulated responses is a different methodology and technique and sits outside the scope of this work.

I'm a research supplier. Is this for me?

Yes. We work with agencies exploring this as an offering of their own. Several of the offerings above are adjusted for the perspective market research suppliers bring when evaluating solutions they could build or bring on themselves.

I need to get up to speed fast.

Buy Report – $1500
Buy Report – $1500

I need help putting this into practice.

Let's chat
Let's chat